External validation of the IMPROVE-DD risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism among inpatients with COVID-19.

There is a need to discriminate which COVID-19 inpatients are at higher risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) to inform prophylaxis strategies. The IMPROVE-DD VTE risk assessment model (RAM) has previously demonstrated good discrimination in non-COVID populations. We aimed to externally validate the IMPROVE-DD VTE RAM in medical patients hospitalized with COVID-19. This retrospective cohort study evaluated the IMPROVE-DD VTE RAM in adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to one of thirteen Northwell Health hospitals in the New York metropolitan area between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2020. VTE was defined as new-onset symptomatic deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. To assess the predictive value of the RAM, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. Of 9407 patients who met study criteria, 274 patients developed VTE with a prevalence of 2.91%. The VTE rate was 0.41% for IMPROVE-DD score 0-1 (low risk), 1.21% for score 2-3 (moderate risk), and 5.30% for score ≥ 4 (high risk). Approximately 45.7% of patients were classified as high VTE risk, 33.3% moderate risk, and 21.0% low risk. Discrimination of low versus moderate-high VTE risk demonstrated sensitivity 0.971, specificity 0.215, PPV 0.036, and NPV 0.996. ROC AUC was 0.703. In this external validation study, the IMPROVE-DD VTE RAM demonstrated very good discrimination to identify hospitalized COVID-19 patients at low, moderate, and high VTE risk.

Efficacy and Safety of Therapeutic-Dose Heparin vs Standard Prophylactic or Intermediate-Dose Heparins for Thromboprophylaxis in High-risk Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: The HEP-COVID Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 are at risk for venous and arterial thromboembolism and death. Optimal thromboprophylaxis dosing in high-risk patients is unknown. Objective: To evaluate the effects of therapeutic-dose low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) vs institutional standard prophylactic or intermediate-dose heparins for thromboprophylaxis in high-risk hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: The HEP-COVID multicenter randomized clinical trial recruited hospitalized adult patients with COVID-19 with D-dimer levels more than 4 times the upper limit of normal or sepsis-induced coagulopathy score of 4 or greater from May 8, 2020, through May 14, 2021, at 12 academic centers in the US. Interventions: Patients were randomized to institutional standard prophylactic or intermediate-dose LMWH or unfractionated heparin vs therapeutic-dose enoxaparin, 1 mg/kg subcutaneous, twice daily if creatinine clearance was 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater (0.5 mg/kg twice daily if creatinine clearance was 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m2) throughout hospitalization. Patients were stratified at the time of randomization based on intensive care unit (ICU) or non-ICU status. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary efficacy outcome was venous thromboembolism (VTE), arterial thromboembolism (ATE), or death from any cause, and the principal safety outcome was major bleeding at 30 ± 2 days. Data were collected and adjudicated locally by blinded investigators via imaging, laboratory, and health record data. Results: Of 257 patients randomized, 253 were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 66.7 [14.0] years; men, 136 [53.8%]; women, 117 [46.2%]); 249 patients (98.4%) met inclusion criteria based on D-dimer elevation and 83 patients (32.8%) were stratified as ICU-level care. There were 124 patients (49%) in the standard-dose vs 129 patients (51%) in the therapeutic-dose group. The primary efficacy outcome was met in 52 of 124 patients (41.9%) (28.2% VTE, 3.2% ATE, 25.0% death) with standard-dose heparins vs 37 of 129 patients (28.7%) (11.7% VTE, 3.2% ATE, 19.4% death) with therapeutic-dose LMWH (relative risk [RR], 0.68; 95% CI, 0.49-0.96; P = .03), including a reduction in thromboembolism (29.0% vs 10.9%; RR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.21-0.66; P < .001). The incidence of major bleeding was 1.6% with standard-dose vs 4.7% with therapeutic-dose heparins (RR, 2.88; 95% CI, 0.59-14.02; P = .17). The primary efficacy outcome was reduced in non-ICU patients (36.1% vs 16.7%; RR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.27-0.81; P = .004) but not ICU patients (55.3% vs 51.1%; RR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.62-1.39; P = .71). Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial, therapeutic-dose LMWH reduced major thromboembolism and death compared with institutional standard heparin thromboprophylaxis among inpatients with COVID-19 with very elevated D-dimer levels. The treatment effect was not seen in ICU patients. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04401293.

Sex-Based Differences in COVID-19 Outcomes.

Background: Smaller studies suggest lower morbidity and mortality associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in women. Our aim is to assess the impact of female sex on outcomes in a large cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective observational cohort study of 10,630 adult patients hospitalized with a confirmed COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2020, with follow-up conducted through June 4, 2020. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between sex and the primary outcomes, including length of stay, admission to intensive care unit (ICU), need for mechanical ventilation, pressor requirement, and all-cause mortality as well as major adverse events and in-hospital COVID-19 treatments. Results: In the multivariable analysis, women had 27% lower odds of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR] = 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66-0.81; p < 0.001), 24% lower odds of ICU admission (OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.69-0.84; p < 0.001), 26% lower odds of mechanical ventilation (OR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.66-0.82; p < 0.001), and 25% lower odds of vasopressor requirement (OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.67-0.84; p < 0.001). Women had 34% less odds of having acute cardiac injury (OR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.59-0.74; p < 0.001; n = 7,289), 16% less odds of acute kidney injury (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.92; p < 0.001; n = 9,840), and 27% less odds of venous thromboembolism (OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.56-0.96; p < 0.02; c-statistic 0.85, n = 9,407). Conclusions: Female sex is associated with lower odds of in-hospital outcomes, major adverse events, and all-cause mortality. There may be protective mechanisms inherent to female sex, which explain differences in COVID-19 outcomes.

Treatment-Dose LMWH versus Prophylactic/Intermediate Dose Heparins in High-Risk COVID-19 Inpatients: Rationale and Design of the HEP-COVID Trial.

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with significant risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), arterial thromboembolism (ATE), and mortality particularly among hospitalized patients with critical illness and elevated D-dimer (Dd) levels. Conflicting data have yet to elucidate optimal thromboprophylaxis dosing. HEP-COVID (NCT04401293) is a phase 3, multicenter, pragmatic, prospective, randomized, pseudo-blinded, active control trial to evaluate efficacy and safety of therapeutic-dose low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) versus prophylactic-/intermediate-dose LMWH or unfractionated heparin (UFH) for prevention of a primary efficacy composite outcome of VTE, ATE, and all-cause mortality 30 ± 2 days post-enrollment. Eligible patients have COVID-19 diagnosis by nasal swab or serologic testing, requirement for supplemental oxygen per investigator judgment, and Dd >4 × upper limit of normal (ULN) or sepsis-induced coagulopathy score ≥4. Subjects are randomized to enoxaparin 1 mg/kg subcutaneous (SQ)/two times a day (BID) (creatinine clearance [CrCl] ≥ 30 mL/min) or 0.5 mg/kg (CrCl 15-30 mL/min) versus local institutional prophylactic regimens including (1) UFH up to 22,500 IU (international unit) daily (divided BID or three times a day), (2) enoxaparin 30 and 40 mg SQ QD (once daily) or BID, or (3) dalteparin 2,500 IU or 5,000 IU QD. The principal safety outcome is major bleeding. Events are adjudicated locally. Based on expected 40% relative risk reduction with treatment-dose compared with prophylactic-dose prophylaxis, 308 subjects will be enrolled (assuming 20% drop-out) to achieve 80% power. Distinguishing design features include an enriched population for the composite endpoint anchored on Dd >4 × ULN, stratification by intensive care unit (ICU) versus non-ICU, and the ability to capture asymptomatic proximal deep venous thrombosis via screening ultrasonography prior to discharge.

Incidence of Venous Thromboembolism and Mortality in Patients with Initial Presentation of COVID-19.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) has emerged as an important issue in patients with COVID-19. The purpose of this study is to identify the incidence of VTE and mortality in COVID-19 patients initially presenting to a large health system. Our retrospective study included adult patients (excluding patients presenting with obstetric/gynecologic conditions) across a multihospital health system in the New York Metropolitan Region from March 1-April 27, 2020. VTE and mortality rates within 8 h of assessment were described. In 10,871 adults with COVID-19, 118 patients (1.09%) were diagnosed with symptomatic VTE (101 pulmonary embolism, 17 deep vein thrombosis events) and 28 patients (0.26%) died during initial assessment. Among these 146 patients, 64.4% were males, 56.8% were 60 years or older, 15.1% had a BMI > 35, and 11.6% were admitted to the intensive care unit. Comorbidities included hypertension (46.6%), diabetes (24.7%), hyperlipidemia (14.4%), chronic lung disease (12.3%), coronary artery disease (11.0%), and prior VTE (7.5%). Key medications included corticosteroids (22.6%), statins (21.2%), antiplatelets (20.6%), and anticoagulants (20.6%). Highest D-Dimer was greater than six times the upper limit of normal in 51.4%. Statin and antiplatelet use were associated with decreased VTE or mortality (each p < 0.01). In COVID-19 patients who initially presented to a large multihospital health system, the overall symptomatic VTE and mortality rate was over 1.0%. Statin and antiplatelet use were associated with decreased VTE or mortality. The potential benefits of antithrombotics in high risk COVID-19 patients during the pre-hospitalization period deserves study.

Validation of the IMPROVE-DD risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism among hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Antithrombotic guidance statements for hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) suggest a universal thromboprophylactic strategy with potential to escalate doses in high-risk patients. To date, no clear approach exists to discriminate patients at high risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to externally validate the IMPROVE-DD risk assessment model (RAM) for VTE in a large cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 within a multihospital health system. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study evaluated the IMPROVE-DD RAM on adult inpatients with COVID-19 hospitalized between March 1, 2020, and April 27, 2020. Diagnosis of VTE was defined by new acute deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism by Radiology Department imaging or point-of-care ultrasound. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted and area under the curve (AUC) calculated. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated using standard methods. RESULTS: A total of 9407 patients were included, with a VTE prevalence of 2.9%. The VTE rate was 0.4% for IMPROVE-DD score 0-1 (low risk), 1.3% for score 2-3 (moderate risk), and 5.3% for score ≥ 4 (high risk). Approximately 45% of the total population scored high VTE risk, while 21% scored low VTE risk. IMPROVE-DD discrimination of low versus medium/high risk showed sensitivity of 0.971, specificity of 0.218, PPV of 0.036, and NPV of 0.996. ROC AUC was 0.702. CONCLUSIONS: The IMPROVE-DD VTE RAM demonstrated very good discrimination to identify hospitalized patients with COVID-19 as low, moderate, and high VTE risk in this large external validation study with potential to individualize thromboprophylactic strategies.

Prevalence and Predictors of Venous Thromboembolism or Mortality in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to identify the prevalence and predictors of venous thromboembolism (VTE) or mortality in hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of hospitalized adult patients admitted to an integrated health care network in the New York metropolitan region between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2020. The final analysis included 9,407 patients with an overall VTE rate of 2.9% (2.4% in the medical ward and 4.9% in the intensive care unit [ICU]) and a VTE or mortality rate of 26.1%. Most patients received prophylactic-dose thromboprophylaxis. Multivariable analysis showed significantly reduced VTE or mortality with Black race, history of hypertension, angiotensin converting enzyme/angiotensin receptor blocker use, and initial prophylactic anticoagulation. It also showed significantly increased VTE or mortality with age 60 years or greater, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) of 3 or greater, patients on Medicare, history of heart failure, history of cerebrovascular disease, body mass index greater than 35, steroid use, antirheumatologic medication use, hydroxychloroquine use, maximum D-dimer four times or greater than the upper limit of normal (ULN), ICU level of care, increasing creatinine, and decreasing platelet counts. CONCLUSION: In our large cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, the overall in-hospital VTE rate was 2.9% (4.9% in the ICU) and a VTE or mortality rate of 26.1%. Key predictors of VTE or mortality included advanced age, increasing CCI, history of cardiovascular disease, ICU level of care, and elevated maximum D-dimer with a cutoff at least four times the ULN. Use of prophylactic-dose anticoagulation but not treatment-dose anticoagulation was associated with reduced VTE or mortality.